NATCHITOCHES – If this season and recent history is any indication, Northwestern State's match against Texas A&M-Commerce on Tuesday night stands to be yet another nail-biter.
 
The last two times the teams met, once this season at Commerce and in the 2022 regular-season finale in Natchitoches, the matches went the full five sets, each team winning on their home floor with the average margin of victory across all 10 sets at 4.1 points. Take out two anomalous runaway set wins by each team earlier this season and the number shrinks to 2.8.
 
Across nearly every statistical category thus far this season the Demons (11-12, 7-5) and the Lions (9-15, 5-6) are situated right next to each other, with near negligible differences in team totals and averages.
 
NSU has the edge in most of those categories – kills, assists, hitting percentage, points, aces and of course blocks – but the Lions rank above the Demons in digs and are right on their heels in every other stat.
 
With so many razor-thin margins between the two teams, the 6:30 p.m. match from Prather Coliseum that will stream on ESPN+ could very well come down to one or two plays per set. 
 
One thing that is certain for the Demons, the thing that has provided them the most success throughout the season has been the quality of their serves and how well they handle serves from their opponents.
 
"Like almost every matchup it comes down to ball control allowing one side or the other to dictate what they are running on offense," head coach Sean Kiracofe said. "This matchup is no different. When we saw each other the first time wins and losses boiled down to who was aggressive with their serve and who's passers handled those first contacts the best."
 
Over the past two matches the Demons have handled those first contacts exceptionally well to the tune of team attack percentages over .225 in both matches and a new five-set percentage record of .364 in the win at Nicholls.
 
Breanna Burrell has been a key part of the offenses efficiency following those first touches that come primarily from Ashlyn Svoboda, Teresa Garza or Symone Wesley with two of her most efficient and effective matches of the season coming this past week.
 
Burrell hit over .300 in both matches with 27 total kills, a 3.4 per set average, which opened things up inside for middles Reaghan Thompson and Jordan Gamble to add 35 kills in those two matches as well.
 
If good passing leads to good offense, then good serves lead to good defense.
 
NSU has been dominant at the net this season averaging just under three blocks per set, the 15^th best average in the country, and rank fourth in the NCAA in total blocks at 229.5. After her ninth consecutive week averaging more than a block per set, Thompson is second in the country in total blocks at 127 and now holds two of the top five best single season blocking totals in school history.
 
With Gamble as well, the Demons have a game-changing middle on the floor for every rotation making NSU one of two teams, the other being Commerce, with two players averaging more than a block per set in league play. If you include the Tessa Gerwig, who was putting up 1.10 blocks per set prior to injury, NSU is the only team with three players with that average.
 
Two good blocking teams and two good serving teams will face off in Prather Coliseum on Tuesday and the location of the match may just be the final deciding factor.
 
The Demons are 8-2 at home this season and have won 11 of their last 14 home matches going back to last season, including a thrilling five-setter against Commerce. A win on Tuesday would tie the record for most home wins in a single season for NSU.